The long and short of property statistics

Here is a copy of a great article I recently saw on news.com.au written by Anthony Keane of News Limited Newspapers.
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Property statistics can be confusing unless you analyse what they mean, writes Anthony Keane.

While the numbers don't lie, they don't tell the whole truth. Statistics don't always paint a clear picture and property is no exception.

For everyone looking to invest in property, it pays to take your statistics with a grain of salt.

Many people use stats as "proof" without understanding their limitations, Property Investment Adviser director Will Chapman says.

"If you make a large financial decision such as buying a property based on limited data, the wrong decision can be made," Chapman says.

Anyone who watches housing values knows "median house prices" can vary by more than $50,000 depending which research is used.

So it pays to make sure you are comparing apples with apples.

Despite the differences, the companies that supply real estate data play a valuable role.

Statistics can help people make accurate investment decisions as long as buyers understand the issues.

Median house prices the most common form of measuring real estate values may vary wildly because of all kinds of things which, when they are properly analysed, don't really alter the value of your house.

For example, a major new subdivision in a suburb can have a massive impact on the median value.

Hundreds of new small blocks selling at a lower price can dramatically affect data.

"If parents sell their home to their kids at a discount nice parents the statistics may still show it as a normal sale," Chapman says.

"If you're looking at a property's past sales and can't work out why it went so cheap, this may be a reason.

"In some cases, only half a property will be sold if the partner buys the other half out.

"Generally, this will be noted but be aware that it can mislead."

Inner-city and central business districts also have big variations. Properties in these areas can range from $300,000 apartments to $6 million residences. But a suburb of three-bedroom houses on 500sqm blocks won't have much variation.

While the numbers don't lie, they also don't tell the whole truth either, Chapman says.

Remember that median house prices are not an average of all sales in a suburb or city.

The median price is the middle sale, the seventh in a group of 13, for example.

Australian Property Monitors, one of several data providers, says the different median prices reflect the analysis by each researcher and their historical data base.

"Essentially everyone has access to the same data you buy it from the state governments," APM spokesman Matthew Bell says.

"But the trick is how you clean the data. Sometimes providers will look at a dwelling price but not split it between houses and units."

It also depends on the size of a property. Bigger also doesn't always mean a higher price.

"The majority of two-bedroom houses tend to be closer to the CBD and therefore more expensive, whereas three-bedroom houses span right out to the outer suburbs," Bell says.

And don't get too upset if you suddenly see prices in your area plunge.

"If a median price falls by 50per cent in a suburb, it doesn't mean the value of most houses has fallen 50 per cent. It might mean a lot of two-bedroom homes have been sold," he says.

It also pays to read the commentary and notes included with any data to help work out the "lies, damn lies and statistics".

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As real estate agents we try and combine all the research and statistics on house prices with recent property sales in your area when providing property appraisals.

For an obligation free appraisal on the price of your home call me on 0411 664 490.

Comments from my crystal ball

What confusing times we live in, we need a Crystal Ball to know the answers to some of your questions. "Is the New Year the right time to buy our first home, upgrade, stay put, or downsize." We are asked time and time again to help people with these huge and important decisions, so we have done some research for you. HAPPY READING.

To hopefully help you sort the wheat from the chaff we list some extracts from various sources including Andrew Carswell "The Sunday Telegraph and Stephen Johnson "AAP" among others.

Stephen says, "The first home buyer share of the mortgage market has risen to a seven year high in response to big rate cuts and generous grants to new home owners. Some 11,665 first time borrowers made up 23.6 per cent of the home borrowing market in November, the highest proportion since January 2002, a big jump from October's 19.5 per cent share, official data showed.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data also showed that overall home loan approvals rose for the second straight month in December while the popularity of fixed rate loans dived to a record low. The mortgage market also boosted by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to slash interest rates by one percentage point in October and another .75 basis points in November, followed by one percentage point in December taking the cash rate to a six and half year low of 4.25 per cent.

Expectations of more interest rate cuts appear to have affected the popularity of fixed rate home loans, which fell to a 2.5 per cent market share in November - the lowest proportion since the ABS starting collecting this date in 1991.
"Confidence in the property market is still a bit shaky and the economic uncertainy is still fairly high.

IS IT THE BEST OR WORST OF TIMES FOR REAL ESTATE? Andrew Carswell sifts through the evidence.

Many property fanatics are proclaiming 2009 as the best year in decades to buy a new home. But others vehemently disagree, arguing that house prices are due for a sharp correction.

At the beginning of 2008, 68.9 per cent of respondents for the Mortgage and Finance Assoc. of Australia/Bankwest Home Finance Index believe property prices would rise in the coming quarter.

The latest figures, out this week, show only 14.6 percent of respondents retained this optimism in the first three weeks of 2009, with 60 per cent believing we're heading for a decline in property values.

Can 60% of Australians be wrong?
Many property experts say: yes they can.

However, Residex property analyst John Edwards said the biggest factor weighing on property prices is unemployment, currently sitting at 4.4 per cent, unemployment has been tipped to rise as high as eight per cent in 2009 as the global financial crisis starts to hit home.

If those levels of unemployment become reality, house prices could slide.

"The areas that are in close proximity to industry/manufacturing areas or small business, probably have some more suffering to do" he said. Despite job uncertainty, Mr Edwards is positive on house values from the major Cities around Australia and swears by the simple motto: "As long as you pay the right price for the property, it is never the wrong time to buy". I totally agree with him.

"In every year, no matter what, there will be area's of the city that will grow well, and there will be, even in boom times, areas that do fairly poorly," he said.

"So it's not the wrong time to buy property in Brisbane; in fact, it's a good time, because now is the time when you are going to find some bargains. "If you've selected properly and in the righ area, you will not see a fall in value. They may stagnate, but not fall. Other's however, dismiss such optimism as naive. Mr Edwards' argument certainly does'nt sit well with notorious bears Steve Keen and Gerard Minack.

Both men - a professor at Western Sydney University and a Morgan Stanley economist, respectively - have predicted the sky to collapse on housing prices. Their conservative estimate is an accross the board fall of 30 per cent.

However, Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, says the severe downturn in housing construction - marked by a whopping 34 per cent fall in residential building approvals in 2008 - should ensure any falls aren't quite so steep. "I've been forecasting 10% falls throughout the year" he said. "I don't think we are going to see the 30 to 40 per cent falls that some have been predicting, because Australia isn't going into a depression and we have an under supply of housing in Australia.

"Interest rates have made a mortgage more affordable, and the first home buyers' grant is helping, but the flipside is that unemployment has only just begun to rise and the rise will be substantial. Normally, when unemployment rises, it puts a big dampener on the housing market." Oliver also said the period of high unemployment during the 1990's put a significant downward pressure on housing prices.

Frighteningly, he now predicts 2009 will bring even bigger decreases because the household debt, relative to income levels, is now four times higher that in the 1990's. "Economic uncertainty has caused a decline in consumer confidence," he said.

In the past 12 months, the average days on market in the Brisbane metro area has increased from 30 to 50 days. "This indicates that buyer phychology is changing, as they have a more considered approach to transactions. But I believe this buyer sentiment will shift in the coming months, as property once again becomes the preferred asset to creating wealth, however, stay within a 10 or 12 klm radius of the Brisbane GPO.

Ed Logue AAP says "New Year 'perfect' time to buy your new home. "Australians could find 2009 an opportune time to buy property, but they should not expect a swift recovery in housing prices, he said.

Loan Market Group executive director John Kolenda says: "Mortgage holders in the coming year are likely to benefit from the lowest variable interest rates ever offered in Australia as the cash rate could fall to 2.5 cer cent."

He also said. "House prices have been sluggish across the eight capital cities in the past two quarters, down 1.8 per cent in the September quarter, this followed a 0.2 per cent drop in the June quarter.

Mr Craig James from CommSec (chief economist)said housing prices are tipped to rise 3 to 5 percent this year due to an undersupply of housing.

The peak home building body, the Housing Industry Association (HIA) chief economist Mr Harley Dale said, we forecast a recovery in the property market in the second half of 2009. We will be some months through 2009 before these lower interest rates translate into a significant stimulus to housing sector expenditure.

If you would like to discuss any of the above regarding selling you property, buying a property or any other concerns you may have please give me a call on 07 3426 8309 or 0411 664490 and I would be happy to meet with you. I HOPE YOU ALL HAD A GREAT CHRISTMAS AND NEW YEAR.